The IoD Guernsey Branch's January Breakfast, sponsored by Skipton International, welcomed Partner and Chief Economist at Deloitte in the UK, Ian Stewart, to explore the latest UK economic outlook, and Richard Hemans, IoD Guernsey’s lead on economics, to analyse what it means for local business leaders.
Ian drew several conclusions for the UK's year ahead including:
- Inflation is expected to drop to 3% by the end of 2024
- Emerging markets expect to continue outperforming the developed world
- Geopolitical uncertainties continue to cause disruption
- Weak growth and high-interest rates could cause a financial crisis
The event also hosted Richard Hemans who examined the Channel Islands' economic outlook and highlighted a number of conclusions for Guernsey:
- Housing market activity is below pre-Covid pandemic levels (Guernsey transactions dropped by 33% and Jersey dropped by 43%)
- Guernsey's GDP for 2024 is likely to remain positive but below rates from 2023 and 2022
- Interest rates will likely remain steady for the first half of 2024 before dropping for the second half of the year.
- Inflation is expected to fall to 4% thanks to falling food and energy costs.
The webinar recording can be watched here.