The Guernsey Travel and Visitor 2024 Annual Report was published yesterday and provides some helpful insights into the performance and outlook for the local economy. Richard Hemans, IoD Guernsey’s lead on economics, has highlighted the key points in the report.
The key points are:
Passenger volumes decreased by 8% in 2024 versus 2023, remaining 25% lower than 2019.
However, if you exclude visitors arriving on cruise ships, Guernsey passenger volumes were up 0.5% in 2024 versus 2023 and 17% lower than 2019.
These figures are consistent with weak economic activity, but the collapse of 55% in cruise ship volume will have hurt the visitor economy.
Jersey passenger volumes increased by 3% with all the growth in ferries (plane volumes flat, ferries up 12%), which indicates stronger economic activity over there.
The number of cruise ships visiting Guernsey is still being affected by the pandemic with routes planned 2-3 years in advance, whilst bad weather in 2024 led to a high number of cancellations. This would have caused a reduction in GDP of nearly £4m based on average spending. 2025 is expected to be the last year affected and the number of cruise ships will increase significantly in 2026.
All the growth in Guernsey passenger volumes has also been in ferries (plane volumes fell slightly). Ferry passenger volumes are 91% of pre-pandemic whilst plane passengers are still only 79%. There is no data on capacity to understand what volume changes meant for utilisation and therefore the profitability of the ferry and airline operators.
There has been a reduction in travel to and from the UK (-1%), our key partner, although there has been good growth in Europe (+7%).
The number of visitors to the island grew by 1% excluding cruise ships but was down by 14% including cruise ships. Visitor numbers are 21% down versus 2019.
The island welcomed 2% more visitors, but the growth was in those staying with friends and family, not in commercial accommodation, which was flat. Occupancy has improved in commercial accommodation, but this is because of a reduction in capacity. Visitors are spending more when they are here so there will have been some growth for the visitor economy here.
The key issues for visitors were travel disruption and value for money. This suggests that 2025 will be a difficult year for the visitor economy. Indeed, the net promoter score fell from 61 to 55 but stabilised in Q4. This confirms that work needs to be done to improve the visitor experience.
Inward and outward business travel fell by 5% in 2024. Although the numbers are small, the reduction in business travel is concerning for economic activity and future growth because relationships are so important and can only be developed properly in person.
Passenger volumes for Guernsey residents grew by 2%, although this was still 13% lower than 2019. This suggests that islanders have money for discretionary purchases and indicates moderate consumer spending growth in 2024.
In summary:
The travel and visitor data for 2024 indicate that Guernsey’s economy experienced weak overall activity, with passenger volumes down 8% year-on-year and 25% below 2019 levels, largely due to a 55% collapse in cruise ship visits, which reduced GDP by an estimated £4m.
While visitor numbers (excluding cruise ships) grew slightly (+1%) and resident travel increased (+2%), commercial accommodation demand was flat, and business travel declined (-5%), raising concerns about corporate engagement and future economic momentum.
However, the growth in resident travel suggests solid consumer confidence and discretionary spending, providing some resilience, while a rebound in cruise activity from 2026, continued visitor spending growth, and improved travel reliability will be key to economic recovery.